Elon Musk has reignited the debate over the world’s declining population, calling it one of humanity’s greatest threats. Taking to X (formerly Twitter), Musk shared a graph depicting dramatic demographic shifts projected between 2018 and 2100, focusing on nations like Nigeria, the US, China, and India. The post, originally shared by Tesla Owners Silicon Valley, bore the caption: “Population collapse is humanity’s greatest threat… Elon Musk,” to which Musk responded with a definitive “Yes.”

However, Musk’s comments have stirred controversy. Critics accuse him of hypocrisy, pointing out his disdain for third-world immigrants seeking economic opportunities, despite their significant role in bolstering economies and filling labor market gaps. This contradiction has fueled heated discussions online, with some questioning Musk’s selective sympathy for declining populations while dismissing the contributions of migrants.

The Global Population Decline Crisis

Population decline is not a new concern for experts, but the scale and speed of the issue are gaining attention. Declining fertility rates, aging populations, and emigration are driving the trend. A stable population requires a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman— a target most countries are failing to meet.

The United Kingdom exemplifies this trend, with the fertility rate in England and Wales hitting a record low of 1.44 children per woman in 2023, according to the Office for National Statistics. Globally, fertility rates have dropped from 5.3 children per woman in 1963 to less than half that figure today.

Projected Population Shifts by 2100

The graph Musk shared highlights profound demographic changes expected by the century’s end. In 2018, India and China each had populations of approximately 1.5 billion. By 2100, India’s population is projected to shrink to just under 1.1 billion, while China’s population is expected to plummet to 731.9 million— a staggering loss of 731 million people.

Meanwhile, Nigeria is forecasted to become the second-most populous country, with a population of 790.1 million. The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ethiopia are also expected to experience substantial growth, surpassing current giants like Indonesia and Pakistan.

Migration: A Lifeline for Some Nations

While population decline poses challenges, migration offers a buffer for certain nations. The United States is projected to remain the fourth-most populous country by 2100, thanks to positive net migration. Similarly, Canada and Australia are expected to maintain stable populations through pro-migration policies.

Conversely, nations like Indonesia and Pakistan will see slight declines, while China and India grapple with more dramatic reductions, potentially reshaping global political and economic dynamics.

A Complex Debate

Musk’s statements, while highlighting a legitimate concern, have reignited debates on migration and humanity’s future. Many argue that embracing immigration could address declining populations and labor shortages, while others warn of the broader economic and geopolitical implications of such shifts.

As the world faces the complex realities of population decline, the debate underscores the need for thoughtful policies that balance demographics, migration, and economic sustainability.